Prince Adesuyi Haastrup, deputy governor to the first executive governor of Osun State, late Senator Isiaka Adeleke, has given a comprehensive analysis of how former vice president Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP and Labour Party, LP respectively lost to Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, APC in the February 25, 2023 election.
The Ilesa-born in a detailed analysis personally signed and addresss to ambassadors of Western Powers, Haastrup, using the state by state results, said that he visited former president Olusegun Obasanjo three weeks before the election and told him that Obi that he was supporting was a loser.
On the demographic rationalize for the losses of the duo, Haastrup explained that “I told Papa Obasanjo that Labour Party has not won even a local government seat in the entire country and therefore has no structure. I didn’t see the Labour Party being able to fund party agents at all in the polls in Nigeria and that at the moment, the core north will not support an Igbo President.
“The best arrangement,” I had told Papa Obasanjo, “was to support Tinubu, saying that if he wins, you (Papa Obasanjo), Asiwaju Tinubu, and other Southern Leaders can meet the Northern Leaders, Clerics, for a final settlement between the Igbos and the Core North.
“Papa Obasanjo admitted he had worked for Obi’s success in the South- south, South-east, South-west, and Christians in the North but a lot still needed to be done in the core North,” he added.
He continued: “The new Naira note crunch came in the nick of time that should have helped Atiku win in a landslide. This also helped Obi in the South as people were frustrated and angry. But, because Asiwaju is a man of ‘destiny’, there came a three pronged crises that robbed Atiku of his victory.
“If Dr. Kwankwaso had not left the PDP and formed his own party, Alhaji Atiku would have captured about 1,200,000 votes in Kano State which would have narrowed Asiwaju’s lead to a small margin. If Obi had not pulled out of PDP, Atiku would have won the whole of the south-eastern states, giving him a good lead over Asiwaju Tinubu.
“The G5 crisis that finally nailed PDP, would have been averted if Ayu had voluntarily stepped down as Chairman in the interest of the party.
“When Asiwaju won the primary, many counting on the tightly knitted culture of the North, were sure, that most APC governors in the core North would rather work for Atiku than Asiwaju. However, the ‘generational changes’ that helped Obi in Lagos, helped Tinuu in the Core-North. Thus, the new generation leaders in the North did the unprecedented; Coordinated by our First Lady, Aisha Buhari, El-Rufai, Gan Duje, Bello, Massari, Bagudu and other APC governors rebelled against the old order and forced primary election on the older generation in APC, which saw Tinubu to victory in the primary. Similarly, they worked hard for his victory in the general election. Thus, Tinubu ran neck and neck with Atiku in the core North with a solid vote from the South-west, and the 3-pronged crisis in the PDP coasted him to victory: A man of ‘destiny’ indeed,” he explained.
Dissecting the arithmetic and demographic analysis of the Nigeria presidential election, he said “Obi defeated an incumbent Governor and Vice-Presidential candidate of PDP with a percentage margin of 57.2%- 27% because of the predominance of Igbos in Delta state. Also, we see where there is a high Christian population in Plateau, F.C.T and Nasarawa States, Obi won, and where he did not win, he performed very well e.g. (Kaduna state).
In the South East, the elder statesman said it can be deduced that “With the presence of sitting governors of other parties in the Southeast, Obi would not have scored 78.5 percentage if not for intimidation. Another is monopoly— no wonder a source close to INEC reported in most parts of the state, that it was only Labour Party agents that signed the election results.
“In the South West, we can say the election is free and fair. This is why Obi can beat Asiwaju Tinubu in his own state, while Alhaji Atiku beats Asiwaju Tinubu in Osun, where PDP has a sitting Governor. In line with the above statement, how free and fair can the election be, unless the ‘Obidients’ ‘ want INEC to rig in their favor and declare Obi the winner?,” he revealed.
According to him, the total votes for the nation’s election are 25,286,611 while the total number of votes in the core North is 12,133,695. This represents 48% of the total votes. Obi was able to score 1,014,408 representing 8.3% of the total votes from the Core North. Saying that it was obvious that Papa Obasanjo was not able to help Obi in the Core-north with 48% of our total votes, Adesuyi “wonders why Obi, our Elders, and others are saying the election was rigged. They could not see how Obi scored scored 97% of the votes cast in his home state Anambra while Asiwaju scored 46.2% in his home state Lagos, yet they are saying the election was rigged. If it was, it can be said or deduced that Obi rigged with southeast votes. Obi’s scores here are unprecedented in the history of elections in Nigeria. They could not see how Obi defeated the incumbent Governor and Vice- presidential candidate of the PDP in his state (Delta).”
Expressing disappointment, Haastrup explained that “Given Obi’s story of how prudent he was while ruling Anambra, he would have been one of my options in the last presidential election if he had won the PDP ticket.
“As a politician, he ought to have known that without good votes in the core north (representing 48% of national votes), he was only going into the election, not to win but to make an impression. I am therefore astonished, that coming a distant third, he actually believes that the court can give him the mandate, skipping Alhaji Atiku. He cries wolf, calling for protest, opening up religious wounds, and bringing Nigeria into disrepute in the eyes of the world. This is unbecoming of someone that one thought would provide the change Nigerians are yearning for in the future.
“Even Dino, we all know, did not call out PDP members to protest since they came second. Obi as an accountant ought to have done his due diligence in the arithmetic and demographic analysis of the election before disturbing the peace of the nation. Now we know, that Obi’s Labor Party is an offshoot of the End-Sars crisis, hijacked by IPOB. (See video 3)
“Your Excellencies, this is a simple arithmetic and demographic analysis of our election results in the nation: Asiwaju Tinubu won, and the electronic nature of the election cut rigging to the barest minimum where there was no intimidation as in the East,” he added.